If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

As the global environment deteriorates, the new energy automobile industry is booming. Global auto companies have launched various new energy vehicles, from oil and gas mixing to hydrogen power to pure electric power, all contributing to the reduction of global pollution.

Recently, I have carefully collected some information about the battery and related research reports, and made some discussions on the battery industry in China. In fact, through these materials, we can understand why there are so many changes.

2015

We will not discuss more about whether to swindle or not. The core is still the whole development direction. According to Mr. Mo and some publicly released information, let us look at it:

1) Proportion

In 2011, the battery in the direction of passenger cars only accounted for 27%

Pure electric bus + pure electric car occupies 70% faster battery usage

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

2) Money

The subsidy for passenger cars is calculated by car. The national supplement is 3.15~5.4 W. The money is basically equivalent to the output value of the battery.

BEV passenger car 13.7W & TImes; 5 W = 6.8 billion

PHEV passenger car 6.3W & TImes; 3.15W = 2 billion

Therefore, we can understand the land supplement as follow-up maintenance and certain profits, and bear some reserve funds of 8 years / 150,000 kilometers.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

However, pure bus, pure electric special vehicle, the output value of 26 billion, who will come to the bottom?

Bus subsidy policy, national compensation according to 40W estimate, 40 billion +

BEV bus 34.2 billion

PHEV bus 6 billion

Special car 6.2 billion

We didn't care about the bus when we were doing the passenger car. I really saw the bus. You found that the battery factory relied on commercial vehicles to eat.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

3) Proportion of technical direction

Now emphasizes technology and emphasizes productivity. There are two reasons: too many LFPs and too many used on passenger cars.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

The ternary battery can't be used on the bus, or it can be used for one year's time to change the 70% capacity of the domestic battery industry. Now, in addition to the safety technical conditions of the bus, it depends on the safety level of the battery itself to determine the follow-up situation.

It seems that everyone is making money. In fact, the persistence of development is doubtful. It is the time when the tide retreats, and the car companies are falsifying on it. This matter is not easy to explain.

4) Combat power of the supply chain

As you can imagine, due to the above situation, most battery companies are still facing buses, special vehicles, and even a good logistics vehicle for everyone. This is not so important in the face of the requirements of passenger car companies.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

The data in the above figure comes from reference file 1, and the following figure is different. I will verify it through detailed data and make a source data inference. I hope to deepen the mining of Chinese data in order to obtain more accurate data. information.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

The bus is unsustainable and needs to be transferred to the passenger car. Legend has it that this year's situation is 40 billion subsidies. We can calculate the proportion based on the sales in the first 10 months.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

We will wait and see, study this form, and wait for the subsidy rules to come out soon.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

5) Capacity

With 8G capacity, we can compare the production capacity forecasts of different companies. This is the earlier report in July 2016.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

Let’s take a look at the latest report below, which has a lot of productivity.

Remarks: There are several recently voted, not here.

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

The goal of 8GWh is actually an incentive to consider with foreign battery companies:

1Gwh = 200 million US dollars, 8Gwh will get 1.6 billion US dollars

If battery technology does not make systematic progress, new energy vehicles are taking money to gamble.

If a large amount of large-capacity pure electricity is going to be ok in the future, if it is a bit windy, it is not fun.

summary

In the field of new energy and batteries, the first thing is to calculate the data according to the data, the sporadic progress of technology, if there is no systematic progress, they are taking money to gamble.

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