[Text/High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII)] From 2009 to 2014, China's LED chip industry has made great progress, the industry scale has increased from 2 billion yuan to more than 10 billion yuan, and the number of MOCVD has increased from less than 200 units. More than 1,100 units have expanded capacity by more than 20 times. As time went by, the once brilliant chip companies such as Dalian Lumei, Shanghai Sapphire, Zhen Mingli, Fangda Guoke, etc. withdrew from the historical stage of LED chips. At present, the total number of LED chip companies has reached 51, and many chip companies that have entered the past three years have begun to emerge.
The High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII) analyzes that in 2015 China's LED chip industry will present the following basic market conditions:
1. In 2015, China's LED chip industry is still in a period of rapid development, and the market will move from domestic to international, and the proportion of exports will start to rise.
Second, the gap between the top technology level of China and Taiwan is within one year, and the gap with the international level is getting smaller and smaller. In the field of small and medium power chips, the technical gap has been very small.
Third, the flip-chip package chip began to be used in some areas, but the proportion does not exceed 10%.
Fourth, about 30% of enterprises will continue to expand production, the number of new MOCVD will exceed 250, but no new companies will enter the LED chip industry.
5. The old equipment began to withdraw from the scale, the 19-piece machine will withdraw from the production field, and 31 pieces will gradually withdraw from the production field.
The Gaogong LED Industry Research Institute believes that there will be seven major competitive trends in China's LED chip industry in 2015:
I. Merger and acquisition competition: The chip companies that have already put into production LED chips but are still on the stage account for the vast majority, and the number of eliminations is limited. In 2015, the competition for the elimination of China's chip industry began. The number of mergers and acquisitions of chip companies will exceed seven. Most of them will be eliminated in the form of bankruptcy and production. Enterprises with technical characteristics may be merged.
Second, the trend of profit competition: the gap between the profit levels of different enterprises will be greatly expanded, the gross profit margin of excellent enterprises will exceed 40%, and the gross profit margin of poor enterprises will be negative. The level of gross profit margin depends mainly on the speed of advancement of enterprise chip technology, the quality of MOCVD equipment, and the total capacity of enterprises.
Third, the technical competition situation: the importance of technology competition will exceed capital, and technical factors will become the most critical factor for enterprises to profit. At present, the expenditure of R&D expenses of LED chip companies is generally too high. How to establish a competitive R&D model, reduce unnecessary R&D investment, and improve the cost performance of R&D investment has become an urgent problem for chip companies. The High-tech LED Industry Research Institute believes that for most chip companies, it is not necessary to invest too much energy and research and development costs in flip-chips in 2015.
Fourth, equipment competition situation: If the company's MOCVD equipment is mostly two years ago, it will face huge cost pressure, not only the annual depreciation cost is high, but also the quality of the produced chips is limited, it is difficult to sell high prices. The main reasons are as follows:
(1) The latest model of MOCVD is less than half the price of the previous two years, but the performance has increased by more than 30%;
(2) The price of chip processing production line is only about half of that two years ago, and the performance has also been greatly improved. Some equipment performance has been improved by more than 50%.
(3) More than 95% of the newly introduced MOCVD in the past two years and 2015 can still enjoy the local government's equipment subsidies.
V. Scale competition: Sanan and Huacan will sit firmly in the top 2 in the industry in 2015, and the third to tenth enterprises will still undergo significant changes. With the further expansion of Sanan and Huacan, it will suppress more living space for SMEs. For enterprises with a scale of less than 200 million yuan, the production space of most SMEs is getting smaller and smaller, and will become the main body of the collapse after 2015.
Sixth, the international competition situation: In 2015, the international influence of China's LED chip industry will be further enhanced, chip products will gradually begin to export directly, chip companies with technology and scale advantages will be expected to obtain generations in Korea, Japan, Taiwan and other regions. Work order. Due to the increase in international influence, chip companies need to prepare for patent layout and patent war in advance.
VII. Capital competition situation: During the period of 2011-2014, more than 75% of chip companies did not achieve profit as a whole, and most of the company's funds have been in a hurry. Gaogong LED Industry Research Institute believes that the overall survival environment of LED chip companies will be even worse in 2015. The difficulty of financing non-listed LED chip companies has become more and more difficult. It is not realistic for local governments to continue to support them on a large scale. Become the key to survival.
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