The core technology level of new energy auto parts needs to be improved
Since the financial crisis, whether it is domestic or foreign, in the automobile industry, the promotion of new energy vehicles has been constantly filling our eyes and ears. This phenomenon can be seen at various auto shows. Car companies are vigorously promoting their new energy vehicles. Not only is the momentum strong, but some models are already close to mass production. However, when the research and development of new energy vehicles is in a state of "a swarm of bees", some experts expressed concern that China's auto industry needs to be improved in terms of core component technologies of new energy vehicles. This may be the bottleneck of the development of new energy vehicles.
The main components of new energy electric vehicles are power batteries, electric motors and energy conversion control systems. Power batteries need to achieve high performance such as fast charging and safety, which is the highest technical threshold and the most concentrated part of profits. Therefore, professionals believe that the bottleneck of the development of new energy vehicles is mainly on power batteries. At present, the development of hybrid power should be the main focus. The marketization of electric vehicles still needs time to cultivate.
Experts pointed out that batteries are very important for new energy vehicles, so the development of new energy vehicles is inseparable from the technical content of batteries. In terms of battery requirements, it must have high specific energy, high specific power, fast charging and deep discharge performance, and the cost should be as low as possible and the service life as long as possible. In this respect, compared with the international new energy vehicles that have been developed for decades, China has fallen behind in the development of new energy vehicle batteries.
Some people think that in new energy vehicles, we are on the same starting line with foreign countries, but this is not the case. Foreign countries have a long history and obvious advantages in the research and development of new energy vehicles. It is understood that the current lithium battery suppliers in Japan have a great advantage in the market, and have also begun to formulate unified battery specifications, safety standards and charging methods; the United States has been researching and developing new energy vehicles for decades In the United States, in order not to rely on foreign lithium batteries, they increased their support for lithium battery manufacturers. They had spent 25 billion US dollars to promote the development of the domestic lithium battery manufacturing industry; European auto companies have The development advantages are more obvious.
Under such a realistic situation, the Chinese automobile industry cannot be careless and cautious in the development and promotion of new energy vehicles. Experts believe that our development of new energy vehicles must not be satisfied with the purchase of advanced foreign parts for assembly, but to study and improve and master the core technology of parts. There is a process for the development of new energy vehicles. At present, the bigger problem is cost and core technology. The relatively high cost and the lack of core technology have affected the development of new energy vehicles. It is a problem that we have to face before us. .
Of course, there are currently some car companies in China that have made great achievements in the research and development of key parts, but even these companies admit that their current advantages in many parts of new energy have not been established, and there are still long The way to go.
It is understood that BYD, SAIC and other car companies have made certain achievements in the development of new energy vehicles and have their own development direction. They have made progress in battery management capabilities, battery industry chain and electric drive transmission development, and look forward to Form your own vehicle integration, including new energy vehicles such as electric air conditioning, electric steering and ABS improvements in new technologies. Experts believe that these layouts may solve the difficulties of new energy vehicles in parts such as battery management systems, motors, and motor drive control.
Although there are bottlenecks in development, China has a bright future in the new energy auto parts market. The international management consulting company Roland Berger has recently released a research report on the prospects of global new energy vehicles, mentioning the development prospects of global hybrid and electric vehicle parts for the first time. The report mentioned that the total value of China's electric drive assembly parts market will exceed 10 billion euros in 2020.
Relevant experts of Roland-Begger said that Chinese companies have advantages in the development of new energy vehicles in the future, especially in the field of core components including batteries. Expert analysis believes that this is because Chinese companies have advantages in raw material costs, manufacturing equipment and labor costs, and this will provide a basis for China's leap-forward development in the field of electric vehicles. According to Roland Berger ’s prediction, Western Europe will become the main market by 2020, and the annual sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed 3 million units, and China will reach 1.58 million units, ranking second.The research report shows that with the growth of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, the related parts industry will also expand rapidly. In 2020, the global hybrid and electric vehicle parts market with the United States, Japan, Western Europe and China as the main force will grow rapidly. From different market segments, it is expected that by 2020, the total market value of Western Europe will exceed 22 billion euros; between 2011 and 2020, the optimal estimate of the total market value of the United States will increase from 2.4 billion euros to 16.5 billion euros; The Japanese market will also grow significantly, excluding exports, from 800 million euros to 3.8 billion euros.
Remarkably, by 2020, the total value of China's electric drive assembly parts market will exceed 10 billion euros. Among them, the total market value of the market in 2011, 2014 and 2017 was 600 million, 2.4 billion and 5.6 billion euros respectively. The medium-estimated market value will reach 6.5 billion euros in 2020, even if it is a conservative estimate. 100 million euros.
According to reports, among all parts related to plug-in hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles, batteries will account for the largest share of the global parts market in 2020, with a market size of between 9.6 billion euros and 297 euros. Experts believe that Chinese suppliers have huge cost advantages compared with those in Japan, South Korea, North America, and Europe. Therefore, future batteries will have smaller and smaller differences in quality standards, life, and price.
The current situation is that most Western suppliers are currently buying expensive lithium-ion battery production equipment from the United States or Japan. Because lithium ion products have very high quality requirements, they have no other choice. Chinese manufacturers have already used locally-developed production equipment in non-essential production links, because China's labor costs are relatively low, and labor is also used to replace some machine production links. Relevant experts believe that the demand for electric vehicle batteries will become the main source of future lithium output growth, and it is expected that by 2020 there will be a 70% annual compound growth rate.
Note: The components of the electric drive assembly include power electronic systems, batteries and motors related to plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles, as well as components such as generators and gearboxes.
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