In 2016, the development of VR is not warm, so what about AR? The Economist believes that existing technologies still do not allow AR to become as popular as smartphones. Both VR and AR are still in the early stages of development. In the future, the integration of technology may make the AR helmet break through.
Science fiction predicts the future, and it affects scientists and futurology. For example, a cell phone, which is similar to the handheld communication tool used by Captain Kirk in the Star Trek movie. Around 2005, the clamshell phone design directly mimicked the fictional equipment in the movie.
If technology giants such as Google and Microsoft, and startups such as Magic Leap and Meta continue to go on, the next technology that turns sci-fi into reality will be MR (mixed reality). MR is a technique that often appears in science fiction, and we see a heads-up display in the movie Terminator. We also saw holographic computers in the Minority Report.
AR and VR are brothers, but there are differences between the two: although they are all “realities,†the “reality†understood by the two technologies is almost the opposite. VR creates an artificial world that makes people think it's true; unlike AR, it superimposes computer-generated data on the real world. The virtual information may be a map that indicates the direction, may prompt the user to attend the meeting, or an alien with a ray gun.
VR has been hot recently, but there are still people who have invested a lot of time in "real reality" instead of computer-generated images. AR is likely to breed a huge new market. Digi-Capital, a California-based M&A advisor, believes that by 2021, VR and AR acquisitions will reach $10.8 billion, with AR accounting for two-thirds.
Like many sci-fi technologies, AR has long existed. Back in the 1950s, Heads-up Displays (HUD) appeared in jet fighters, which project information such as compass information, height and tilt angle information. AR technology occasionally appears in cars. As computers get smaller and stronger, until now, the AR experience has the ability to enter everyday life.
Last year, the whole world was crazy about Pokemon Go. With a mobile phone camera, players can capture virtual monsters. Snapchat has an image filter installed, photos can be added to computer-generated rabbit ears, and virtual makeup can be used.
The Google Translate app uses computer vision technology, automatic translation technology, and a smartphone camera to scan images with text, such as menus, street signs, and software that translates text into dozens of languages.
Both Snapchat and Google Translate apps use machine vision technology. Snapchat recognizes the face and puts the rabbit's ear on the head. Translation software looks for text and translates. But smartphone makers have greater ambitions.
At the end of last year, Google and Lenovo launched the Phab 2 Pro, the first mobile phone to use Google's Tango technology. Tango technology puts a special camera on the phone, which senses the shape of the world around you. The mobile phone uses an infrared detector, a wide-angle lens, and a "time-of-flight" camera to obtain information. Tango can draw 3D images of the surrounding environment. Because of this, we can use the Tango phone to draw model images of houses, offices or other spaces, and then add things to the model.
In order to make the phone practical, Google has also developed some software. For example, Measure, it can put a virtual tape measure on the screen of the phone. Align the phone with the door to measure the height and width, and point to the bed to know the size of the bed. Another example is Woorld, which can put virtual flowers and rocket ships into the living room.
Watch through glassesAlthough Tango technology is very good, it is still not mature. Drawing 3D images for the world requires a lot of computing power, and the Phab 2 Pro's battery is very fast. Model data will not consume much memory in a short time. When we operate the software, the touch screen of the phone is rather sluggish. Some people think that only when we abandon the smart phone and turn to smart glasses, no matter what we look for, smart glasses can superimpose virtual images, and AR technology can really take off.
In fact, this technology already exists, it does not affect the family, but the office. Ubimax, a German company, and Vuzix, a New York company, have developed AR glasses with cameras and sensors, and a projector on the frame that puts a small 2D screen in the wearer's field of vision.
For example, when we use AR glasses in a warehouse, it can track workers and packages, indicate where employees should go, provide the fastest route, and when employees arrive at the target location, it tells employees what to take. Ubimax points out that the glasses increase productivity by 25%. In October last year, Boeing said at a conference in London that it handed AR glasses to the factory staff, told them how to assemble the components, and checked whether the work was done correctly. Paul Davies, an executive at Boeing's R&D department, said that glasses work faster and errors are reduced.
Some companies want to provide AR technology to consumers, but the results are not very good. In 2013, Google introduced smart glasses that installed small projectors on their glasses. Google's goal is to develop a wearable smartphone that can make calls, read e-mails, and have built-in GPS in the glasses, which can be used to navigate and do the task without having to.
The Google Explorer glasses are priced at $1,500, and the hardware looks good, but the experience is not particularly good. Exploring glasses also poses some problems. Some people can't help but read emails when they talk, and some people worry that glasses will invade privacy. At the beginning of 2015, Google Glass was discontinued. Later, Google changed its direction and developed glasses for business use.
There are also some companies with ambitions and the results are better. RideOn is an Israeli company founded by three engineers who designed a heads-up display for use on an airplane. RideOn will soon sell AR ski goggles. RideOn turns skiing into a video game, glasses can show the route, we can play against friends and record videos.
Still others have developed more practical displays. In addition to 2D images, they can also create 3D AR images. In March 2016, Microsoft began offering HoloLens helmets to software developers. Unlike the AR glasses and Google glasses developed by Vuzix and Ubimax, the 3D images drawn by HoloLens are displayed in the real world. The user can rotate around the virtual motorcycle, check from the back, or place the virtual item on a table or shelf.
Microsoft HoloLens is actually similar to the Tango smartphone, but it is more practical. The device uses a camera to scan the world around it, the camera generates a lot of information, and Microsoft designed a special chip to process the captured information.
HoloLens can track the user's head position and then properly manipulate the image, such as making a virtual motorcycle appear on a real floor. Through the camera, the wearer can also use voice commands to communicate with the machine, draw gestures in the air, or accurately determine where the user is watching.
VR helmets must be wired to a PC or smartphone to use. HoloLens is a stand-alone computer that does not require accessories. The user views the world through thick transparent lenses, and a pair of projectors put light onto the lens. Three optical waveguides bend the light 90 degrees and then pass through the lens into the user's eyes.
After superimposing the image on the real world, the HoloLens helmet can put the real image into the computer monitor. Through the helmet, we can project Skype onto the office wall, and it will disappear when the eyes are removed, and will appear again when you look back. We can also put a computer-generated calendar on a table or on the ceiling. When viewing this information, we don't have to cut off the connection with the outside world, if it is VR must be cut off.
The early HoloLens helmet gave birth to some games. In a game, the aliens come out from behind the sofa in the living room, and the user has to fight back the aliens. In another game, users can play Minecraft blocks on the table in the living room. The recently developed APP focuses on business and training. Microsoft is working with Case Western Reserve University to develop a training application that projects the human body into the room for anatomy teaching. We can add muscle to the skeleton or take the heart out of the chest for examination.
Strengthening the enterpriseHoloLens can be used for collaboration. For example, under the guidance of others, another person wearing HoloLens can repair the switch of the light, and the instructor uses video conferencing software guidance in another room. The image instructor that the learner sees can also see that it can draw an image within the learner's field of view, such as drawing a circle around the object, or highlighting the tools that should be used in the toolbox.
ThyssenKrupp is a German engineering company that is experimenting with elevator technicians using AR helmets. When the repairman encounters a problem, he can call the headquarters and ask for help from a special expert.
Aecom is a construction engineering company that uses HoloLens to assist in the design of buildings. John Endicott, executive director of Aecom, explained that modern architecture projects can be complex, and even the most experienced designers can't keep everything in mind.
In 2016, Aecom designed a building near the SerpenTIne Art Gallery in London. Endicott says the roof of the building is complex and the company can't view it on a 2D screen, but HoloLens lets users see all the images. American engineering company Trimble helped Aecom develop the system. Aviad Almagor, director of mixed-reality projects at Trimble, said: "AR can come in handy from mining to agriculture to equipment management." He added: "We can use AR helmets to track asset information and let customers view 3D images of mines in real time."
HoloLens is still far from perfect. The AR helmet weighs only 600 grams and is very light and comfortable, but it's still big and not very stylish. Using the gesture tracking system to control the image generated by the helmet, it is still awkward and not very convenient. HoloLens sales are not large, the price is at least 3,000 US dollars, and can only be used by enterprises for the time being.
Not only is Microsoft developing AR helmets, but also Meta. Compared to Microsoft, Meta is just a child, and it has raised $73 million. Meta engineers promise that their AR helmets have a wider view than HoloLens, and Microsoft helmets can only track a few gestures. Meta can continuously track the user's palm, just pick up the virtual object, rotate the object, and Meta can handle the operation.
The Osterhout Design Group (ODG) in San Francisco is also developing AR glasses for industrial and medical companies. It has released two products aimed at individual users. ODG glasses are not as powerful as HoloLens, but are smaller. The most famous competitor in the AR field may be Magic Leap, which was founded in 2010 and has received $1.4 billion in investments. Both Google and Alibaba are investors. What kind of technology does Magic Leap use? It is still a secret, so some people think that its technology is overstated. From the demonstration, the image produced by the Magic Leap helmet is clearer and more vivid than the HoloLens.
Passion is not too hotRegardless of how hype, AR is still in its early stages, especially as a consumer technology. VR has shown some signs of failure. No VR helmet manufacturer has released sales data, but sales don't seem to be good.
In October 2016, HTC Chairman Wang Xue said in an interview with 87870 that Vive helmet sales exceeded 140,000 units. Look at Apple again, it sells 870,000 iPhones a day. In November last year, market consulting firm SuperData said in the report that VR is the biggest loser in the US Thanksgiving holiday shopping season; the company believes that PlayStaTIon VR sold only 750,000 units in 2016, a sharp drop from the previous 2.6 million units. .
Even among the technician community, VR did not provoke too much ripples. Steam found that in December 2016, only 0.38% of Steam customers had helmets, and the data was unchanged from the previous months.
If AR wants to have better performance, it must be easier to use first. How to achieve it? It may be necessary to match the AR helmet to the smartphone first. Digi-Capital director TIm Merel pointed out that the number of mobile phones is huge and everyone is used to it; for many people, mobile phones are already the default computing device.
With a program store, developers can sell software. The phone screen is small, there is only one screen, and whenever we use the AR app, we have to lift the phone, which is really monotonous.
With a helmet like HoloLens, we might be able to solve this problem. The development work has cost countless money, and it seems that the product is a bit silly. At some point in time, the computing power of the sensor and the helmet may reach a critical point, as Zuckerberg said: "We will see a helmet that looks like ordinary glasses, it is both a VR helmet and an AR helmet." There are still some companies that go further, such as Samsung Apple, who want to develop AR contact lenses.
However, Zuckerberg’s device has to wait a long time to appear. The so-called "iPhone moment" often takes years of research and development to emerge. The iPhone is not the first smartphone. In 2005, the smartphones used by people were mainly BlackBerrys. It is really necessary to trace back to their ancestors and possibly return to the PDAs of the 1990s. If you design according to the existing method, AR can't change the world like the iPhone. Don't be discouraged, we still have hope: one day, integration may bring a breakthrough.
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