In 2016, which was earlier called "VR's first year," it seems to have been caught in the "cold winter" at the end of the year. It has become a thing of the past that many media have successively revealed the VR industry. Is this really the case? IDC China released the following data:
IDC: China's VR market will grow 4 times year-on-year this year (Source: IDC)
In the third quarter of 2016, China's VR market shipped 204,000 units, an increase of 367.9% from the previous quarter. From the third quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, the growth of VR market was sluggish, mainly due to the announcement of the imminent entry of the international VR brand into the Chinese market and the consumption side holding the currency. However, from the second quarter of 2016, the VR market witnessed a significant quarter-on-quarter growth. In the third quarter, the VR market continued to maintain rapid growth. In the fourth quarter of 2016, the VR market was further boosted with the global shipment of Sony PSVRs. Interestingly, market data did not perform well when the VR concept was hottest. However, in the midst of the media's decline, the market's shipments have maintained large growth. What is the reason for this situation?
Before the second quarter of 2016, major domestic VR manufacturers were local companies, and most of them were start-up companies. Later, with the HT products of HTC, Samsung, Sony, LeTV, etc., VR products were successively shipped in the Chinese market. And more and more large companies such as Xiaomi, Huawei, Microsoft, Lenovo, etc. also announced their entry into the VR market. The space left for startup companies in VR hardware has narrowed, and even some startup companies have closed down without shipping. For the capital market, the risk of venture into the hardware startup market is too high, which leads to the so-called "winter" of VR capital. However, it is worth noting that VR Capital's cautious attitude is only at the hardware level. IDC believes that the capital market can actively seek the direction of entrepreneurship in the VR content market and will have the chance to find a dark horse-like “Rovio†or “Supercell†in the VR content market.
IDC predicts that China's VR market will continue to grow in 2017, with a year-on-year increase of 441.2%. Competition will become fierce and diversified, mainly in:
1. Large companies have entered the market. Mobile phone manufacturers have found the direction and motivation of smart phone upgrades. Inspired by Google, 80% of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers will enter mobile VR. At the same time, traditional IT giants such as Lenovo, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, etc. will also cooperate with Microsoft to force VR market. Internet companies with content such as Tencent, LeTV, iQiyi, and Storm have all eagerly tried in the VR hardware market. VR start-up hardware companies will face more severe challenges. Start-up companies that have already established a firm foothold need to quickly consolidate their position in the industry and clearly define the direction of development.
2. The VR platform landscape appears. Sony, Microsoft, and Vive will form the top three desktop VR platforms in China. Daydream will also create a mobile VR platform. The entrepreneurial content producers and hardware providers will differentiate and develop their respective platforms.
3. No screen appears early to break out. In 2017, with the promotion of mobile phone manufacturers, no screen display will occupy 62.9% of the domestic market shipments. The lack of screens has enabled more consumers to obtain a better VR experience at a relatively low price, thereby increasing consumer awareness of VR's actual experience.
4. The desktop display will achieve more than 4 times growth. HTC, Sony, and Microsoft will lead the development of the desktop. Domestic start-up desktop head manufacturers will deepen cooperation in VR experience stores or commercial fields, or jointly develop with large platforms. Experience, value for money and platform will become the top three keywords for the 2017 desktop.
5. Independent heads are looking for ways to break through. Independent heads are limited by technology and price, but with the support of chip and screen giants, they are expected to find their development direction in advance. As long as the right target market is identified, there are opportunities and growth points in the overseas market, the gift market and the commercial market.
6. The content has further matured, and mild industry applications have arisen. The first half of 2017 will begin with impressive VR content. Manufacturers will further develop the VR industry test layout, and gradually develop display and entertainment-based VR light industry applications.
7. The experience shop economy has further expanded. As of the third quarter of 2016, the number of VR experience stores across the country exceeded 5,000. In 2017, the number of experiential stores will increase further. The characteristics will be to infiltrate into low-level cities, and there will be a wide range of attachments, and thematic video clubs will be linked together.
2017 will be a year in which China's VR industry is full of opportunities, but it is a big one. VR contents are becoming more and more abundant, and business models are more diversified, but inevitably face the collapse and deterrence brought about by the large number of participants. The word "winter" is overstated. The early spring of China's VR market is worth looking forward to.
Note: China's mobile phone box market 16Q3 shipments of 1.268 million units, and maintain a double-digit growth. However, since the mobile phone box is not defined as a VR product according to IDC definition, it is not included in this analysis. However, it cannot be denied that the mass shipment of mobile phone boxes has a positive effect on popularizing VR concepts, but it is also a double-edged sword because of poor experience.
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