Introduction: How will the TD-SCDMA network develop in the next TD-LTE development? It has become a major challenge for Chinese companies. According to the industry's view, since LTE has already built a large-scale plan for annual sales of hundreds of millions of TD-LTE terminals, there is no need to scale up the TD-SCDMA network with lower technical performance than LTE. It should be strictly controlled and not It should be built on a larger scale. Another point of view is that compared with the construction of LTE networks in the international community, it takes three years to form a dominant position. During this period, foreign countries have adopted a strategy of perfecting 3G. China should continue to build a TD-SCDMA network and then gradually transition to better.
What kind of strategy is more appropriate? The four-network collaborative research group of the Institute of Planning and Design of the Institute of Telecommunications Research believes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis and to see the expected consequences of the two behaviors, so as to draw a firm conclusion, which can be of great significance for decision-making. This paper accelerates the development of LTE networks from abroad and the relationship with 3G networks, the development forecast of domestic LTE users and TD-SCDMA user systems, the risk comparison between LTE initial network and TD-SCDMA construction, and the development of TD-SCDMA in different scenarios of cities and towns. Make a wide wide-angle perspective to readers.
Handling the relationship between TD-LTE and TD-SCDMA
After the issuance of TD-LTE licenses, China Mobile proposed to increase the number of LTE networks from 200,000 base stations to 500,000 in 2014 and to sell 100 million TD-LTE terminals in one year, that is, to develop nearly 100 million users. If this goal can be achieved, it will indeed affect the development of TD-SCDMA. However, the scale of the network can be subjectively determined, and the development of users is subject to objective constraints to determine the scale of development. The subjective initiative of operators only plays a supporting role and cannot change the objective laws.
Multi-window interweaving competitive environment
China's mobile market has two network standards of 2G, 3G and LTE and multiple window periods. International TD-LTE technology and market development lag behind FDD LTE for about one and a half years. It can be said that to make the competition strength of the two systems flat, it is necessary to give the TD-LTE license a window period of about one and a half years, and then issue the FDD LTE license. If the international TD-LTE terminal style takes about two years from the small to the rich, the window period of TD-LTE first enters the market is two years. At present, China Telecom urgently needs to get rid of the competitive disadvantages. It has built a trial network that integrates FDD LTE. Although China Unicom's WCDMA network has been in the lead for 3G competition for two years, and HSPA+ downlink can continue to upgrade to 42Mbps or even 84Mbps, it is more important to learn from foreign countries. Develop FDD LTE directly with an investment in upgrading HSPA+ to maintain existing advantages and reduce secondary investment. Therefore, considering that China's FDD LTE license is difficult to delay in the balance, China Mobile's decision to accelerate the development of TD-LTE can be understood. The question is whether its goal can be achieved smoothly.
The timing of LTE replacing 3G network
There are two definitions for judging the development window of TD-SCDMA. One believes that TD-LTE enters the rapid growth period and marks the end of the TD-SCDMA growth window. The other believes that TD-LTE becomes the dominant network and marks TD-SCDMA. The end of the growth window.
From the TD-LTE into the rapid growth period to see the growth window of TD-SCDMA, it is found that the inflection point of the TD-SCDMA network growth is small, which is meaningful for early control of TD-SCDMA network investment risk. However, at this time, it does not indicate that the development of TD-SCDMA users has experienced a large-scale reduction, which needs to be judged based on predictions.
From the perspective of the LTE becoming the dominant network to replace the 3G network, that is, the small half of China Mobile's (about 300 million) users enter the LTE network, which is the end point of the TD-SCDMA network that does not need scale construction, for controlling TD-SCDMA. It is of great significance for users to perceive and maintain the continuous brand image of TD-SCDMA and TD-LTE and maintain the users in the network.
If TD-LTE has not entered the rapid growth period, TD-SCDMA users are still growing in scale, and the TD-SCDMA network construction will be braked, or the user experience in the network will decline rapidly, or fall into the GSM network bearer. The negative impression of 2G and 3G users on the network brand, the chain reaction affects TD-LTE, the possibility of users losing to competitors will increase, and the frequency of 2G is difficult to vacate. If TD-LTE has not become the dominant network and brakes the TD-SCDMA scale construction, there may be a risk that the new TD-SCDMA network equipment will be phased out.
Therefore, it is a better time to control the scale construction of TD-SCDMA when TD-LTE enters the rapid growth period and forms the dominant network.
TD-SCDMA and LTE user development forecasts
The new user data of TD-SCDMA history shows that from 2009 to 2013, it was more than 6 million, about 14 million, 31 million, about 37 million, and 103 million, which is roughly the trend of doubling every year and accelerated in 2013; Assuming that China has not developed an LTE network and has a conservative forecast for TD-SCDMA subscriber growth, the number of new subscribers from 2014 to 2016 will be approximately 132 million, 127 million, and 124 million, showing a very large-scale growth. The reason is not only the increase in the number of base stations in the past two years, but also the most important ones are about 280 terminal manufacturers of TD-SCDMA, more than 1000 terminal products, and thousands of high-quality intelligent terminals have emerged, realizing the terminal products with European and American standards. Synchronous homogenous low price." In Europe, it took five years to develop 50 million users of 3G standards. China has developed TD-SCDMA users and has developed more than 50 million in three years.
After more than five years of unremitting efforts, China's TD-SCDMA has entered a period of great development: it is roughly 2 to 3 years to complete the coverage of cities and key areas, and after 1 to 2 years of repeated optimization and improvement to form a high-quality network, after nearly 4 The TD-SCDMA terminal achieved by the Moore cycle is comparable to WCDMA.
The LTE network can be appropriately accelerated, but it still needs to complete the coverage of cities and key areas in one and a half to two years, and then it will be possible to form an objective principle of high-quality network after repeated optimization and improvement in half a year to one year; and TD-LTE terminals should The FDD LTE terminal is quite similar. It takes about 3 years for a TD-SCDMA terminal to start from a small number of manufacturers' 3000-4000 yuan smart machines to mainstream manufacturers to launch thousands of smart machines, and even about 600 yuan of low-cost high-performance smart phones. The most important factor restricting the development of LTE users is the terminal.
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