LED product prices have fallen sharply, four major trends have brought new opportunities

The 2015 China LED Supply Chain Conference was held in Maanshan. With the theme of “promoting unity and promoting innovation”, more than 100 people from industry leaders, experts and senior executives of the industry have heated discussions on a series of industrial hotspot issues.

Product price dropped nearly 50% in half a year

Affected by the downward pressure on the economy, since the end of last year, the price of LED products has fallen sharply, and enterprises have not started to work, and there has been a phenomenon of increasing production without increasing profits and sharply falling profits. “Breakingly unexpected, I didn’t expect so much worse than last year!” The leading companies in various LED industry chains have said that the price of LED products has fallen by almost 50% in more than half a year, despite the increase in production. However, profits have fallen sharply, and they are barely able to maintain profitability.

In this regard, Gan Zikai, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and former dean of the School of Physics of Peking University, said that LED lighting is an industry with huge market and development potential, an industry closely linked with cutting-edge technology, and an industry that is of great significance to the national economy and the people's livelihood. However, in the era of knowledge-based economy, such industries are often a "very profitable" industry.

Gan Zikai pointed out that from a global perspective, LED lighting has become a "small profit" industry, and China, which is in international competition, is facing a severe test.

Combined with the actual situation of China's LED industry, Gan Zikai put forward several suggestions for industrial development:

First, resolutely overcome low-level, reckless and disorderly competition, resolutely oppose "local" and "departmental"ism, and play a game in the country, concentrate on building a number of larger and stronger enterprises, and strive to create China's "famous brand."

The second is to strengthen the standard work and monitoring measures of products, and put quality in the first place of all work. Under such premise, we will strive for the domestic market.

Third, enterprises must train "internal strength" and pay close attention to the training of personnel's business level and work style.

The fourth is to strengthen scientific and technological research for industry needs, and promote various forms of "production, study and research".

Four major development trends bring new opportunities in four areas

China's semiconductor lighting / LED industry has developed rapidly, with an output value of more than 200 billion yuan in 2014. Gan Zikai believes that by 2020, the annual output value of semiconductor lighting / LED will rise to 400-500 billion yuan. From the perspective of the development of semiconductor science and technology, there are many new developments in the LED lighting industry. In a nutshell, it can be divided into four areas:

First, the performance and grade of lighting LED components and lamps will be greatly improved.

It is estimated that after more than a decade, the light efficiency of white LED dies for general illumination using gems or silicon as substrates will increase to approximately 200-240 lumens per watt. The homoepitaxial LED with a GaN substrate will even increase to 300-350 lm/W.

Corresponding to the progress of light efficiency, the composition and process of fluorescent materials will also have great progress, and the color temperature, quality and even life of light will be greatly improved.

The optics of LEDs using LEDs are also evolving, becoming a subject area called non-imaging optics. Combined with physical optics, physiological optics and psychological requirements, lamps will change significantly after more than a decade.

"That is to say, the face of the lighting industry will have great progress." Gan Ziyu stressed.

Second, the optimization and intelligentization of LED lighting systems will develop rapidly.

The LED is small in size, low in driving voltage, and relatively easy to control electrical performance. Therefore, the overall optimization and intelligence of the LED lighting system is inevitable, and in terms of energy saving, this is actually more effective than the improvement of the light efficiency of the simple component. "This will lead to the development of electronics, electrical engineering, lighting structure, etc. In fact, an emerging industry field has been born, and the estimated market value is considerable." Gan Zikai believes.

Third, LED lighting will generate many new application technologies, which is to derive some new industries.

The first is the light environment industry. People say that sunlight, air and water are the conditions for the existence of life. Using LEDs of various wavelengths, they are irradiated at a set dose at a specified time to promote and improve the growth of crops, livestock, and people's healthy lives. This is forming an industry sector with considerable volume.

This is followed by an LED lighting system combined with a fiber optic network. Using the LED lighting system as the interface between the fiber network and the user, it is customary to use it instead of the commonly used WiFi. Not only does it improve in terms of security, but it is also important that the fixed position lights can be used as a positioning and navigation for the user. This has important implications for logistics systems and the like. It has been estimated that it will develop into a new industry comparable to the traditional lighting industry.

Finally, the UV LED technology. Adjusting the composition of the GaN semiconductor alloy allows the LED to emit ultraviolet light waves, such as ultraviolet light waves shorter than 300 nm. Used in the printing industry, environmental protection industry, medical industry, etc., this will be a considerable industrial sector.

“In short, the new application sectors and industries derived from LED lighting are a broad area under development. These are just three examples. It is estimated that the market they develop will not be lower than the market value of traditional LED lighting.” Gan Zikai said.

The fourth is the "family brothers" of the LED lighting industry - nitride LD and wide band gap semiconductor electronics.

"It has to be said that LED is essentially another LD." Gan Zikai said, "Electrical devices made of GaN-based semiconductor alloys have higher mobility due to wider band gaps. The carrier concentration of the polarization effect is large, and it has great advantages in microwave electronics and power electronics. Especially due to the current huge development demand of electromechanical, some people even think that this kind of wide bandgap electronics Market value will be above LED lighting."

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