The Central Water Conservancy Work Conference has also benefited the hydropower industry to a certain extent, which indirectly attracted the attention of brokers to the power sector. However, the analysis of the entire power sector, brokerages believe that investment opportunities are mainly based on fundamentals, the industry may be a new starting point in the boom cycle. Hydropower can mainly focus on the impact of large and medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower investment, and thermal power can grasp two types of trading opportunities.
According to reports released by investors, the fundamentals of thermal power are unlikely to change in the second half of 2011. The economic slowdown or the growth in demand for electricity in the fourth quarter declined slightly, but the overall coal price will remain strong. The operating environment of the thermal power industry is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, we can grasp two types of trading investment opportunities:
First, in the third quarter, thermal power generation continued to deteriorate during the peak period of electricity consumption. Under the background of ensuring the safety of electricity supply, the relevant authorities either raised the price of thermal power on-grid electricity in areas where the contradictions between coal and electricity prices were highlighted again; second, the environment for thermal power investment was improved after inflation was eased. Thermal power companies with areas with hard power shortages and low ignition spreads are expected to usher in further increases in on-grid tariffs.
However, in 2012, the deteriorating thermal power investment environment and the pressure for energy-saving and emission-reduction will inevitably push the reform of the electricity price system, and the thermal power industry will continue to see expectations of rising prosperity. The report stated that in order to avoid the impact of insufficient electricity supply on the economy, it is imperative to rationalize the price mechanism of coal and electricity and improve the investment environment for thermal power; the space for energy conservation and consumption reduction by relying on existing industries and fiscal and taxation policies is gradually shrinking. During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, it is increasingly pressing to push forward energy conservation and consumption reduction by promoting energy pricing system reforms and reliance on price mechanisms.
“We believe that the possibility of progress in the reform of the electricity tariff system in 2012 will be high, and the continuous rise in electricity prices during the reform of the electricity price system will continue to be an event of high probability. The urgency to improve the investment environment for thermal power and the pressure for energy conservation and emission reduction It is estimated that the thermal power rate will increase or follow the path of the eastern region to the central and western regions."
The overall power industry will actually be in a boom period. Datong Securities stated:
In 2011, due to the end of energy-saving and consumption-reduction tasks, heavy industry electricity consumption has shown a recovery growth. According to data released by the CEC, the nationwide electricity consumption during the first five months of this year was significantly higher than the growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year. In the second half of the year, the construction of affordable housing will generate a large amount of investment demand, which will lead to an increase in the output of high-energy-consuming industries. It is expected that the growth in electricity demand will remain at a high level.
In recent years, the slowdown in the growth rate of power generation installations and the conspicuous contradictions in the regional structure are the most important reasons for this round of power shortages. The decrease in hydropower generation due to the decrease in the enthusiasm for power generation by thermal power plants and the subsequent reduction in hydropower generation due to delays in the flood season have also exacerbated the severity of the electricity shortage in the second quarter. Since the power supply and power grid construction period is generally 2-3 years, it is difficult to release sufficient power supply capacity in the short and medium term. It is expected that the power shortage will continue to exist for a long time.
The emergence of power shortages in the off-season and the increase in the power supply gap for some time in the future will provide opportunities for the next phase of the power system reform, and the pace of future reforms is expected to accelerate. We believe that whether it is from the perspective of short-term electricity mitigation, or from the perspective of long-term reversal of the downward trend in the number of new thermal power generators, it is expected that coal-fired linkage will be normalized in the future. In the situation where the growth of installed capacity is slowing down and cross-regional power transmission capacity is limited, adjustment of electricity prices is an important means to alleviate the power shortage in the supply side management approach.
As the adjustment of electricity prices in the first half of the year is not yet in place, it is expected that after the peak of inflation in the second half of the year, the country is expected to start a new round of large-scale price adjustments. In addition, due to the rise in international coal prices, the delay in the southern flood season, and the tightening of domestic coal supply, domestic coal prices have risen sharply since the second quarter and have reached a high level in 2008. Combined with the slowdown in the growth of domestic demand and the sharp increase in imported coal, the current coal price is already close to the top region, and the probability of coal prices soaring in the second half is relatively small.
Based on the above analysis, Datong Securities released a report that: At present, the power industry is in a new starting point for the business cycle. After the inflation situation has eased in the second half of the year, the on-grid tariff is expected to increase again. At the same time, the current power industry is at the bottom of the historical valuation area, compared with other The industry also has advantages; in addition, the probability of coal prices continuing to soar in the second half of the year is already very small. Maintain the power industry's "look" rating.
For individual stocks, taking into account expected second-half tariff adjustments, Datong Securities proposed to first focus on thermal power companies with high sensitivity to electricity prices, followed by hydropower companies with cost advantages. Combined with the current valuation level, the investment portfolio given in the report is Huaneng International (5.28, -0.03, -0.56%), Tongbao Energy (7.16, 0.16, 2.29%), Inner Mongolia Huadian (8.52, 0.03, 0.35%), Guodian Electricity (2.93, 0.00, 0.00%), Yangtze Power (7.18, -0.02, -0.28%), and Wuyuan Power (19.93, -0.12, -0.60%).
According to reports released by investors, the fundamentals of thermal power are unlikely to change in the second half of 2011. The economic slowdown or the growth in demand for electricity in the fourth quarter declined slightly, but the overall coal price will remain strong. The operating environment of the thermal power industry is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, we can grasp two types of trading investment opportunities:
First, in the third quarter, thermal power generation continued to deteriorate during the peak period of electricity consumption. Under the background of ensuring the safety of electricity supply, the relevant authorities either raised the price of thermal power on-grid electricity in areas where the contradictions between coal and electricity prices were highlighted again; second, the environment for thermal power investment was improved after inflation was eased. Thermal power companies with areas with hard power shortages and low ignition spreads are expected to usher in further increases in on-grid tariffs.
However, in 2012, the deteriorating thermal power investment environment and the pressure for energy-saving and emission-reduction will inevitably push the reform of the electricity price system, and the thermal power industry will continue to see expectations of rising prosperity. The report stated that in order to avoid the impact of insufficient electricity supply on the economy, it is imperative to rationalize the price mechanism of coal and electricity and improve the investment environment for thermal power; the space for energy conservation and consumption reduction by relying on existing industries and fiscal and taxation policies is gradually shrinking. During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, it is increasingly pressing to push forward energy conservation and consumption reduction by promoting energy pricing system reforms and reliance on price mechanisms.
“We believe that the possibility of progress in the reform of the electricity tariff system in 2012 will be high, and the continuous rise in electricity prices during the reform of the electricity price system will continue to be an event of high probability. The urgency to improve the investment environment for thermal power and the pressure for energy conservation and emission reduction It is estimated that the thermal power rate will increase or follow the path of the eastern region to the central and western regions."
The overall power industry will actually be in a boom period. Datong Securities stated:
In 2011, due to the end of energy-saving and consumption-reduction tasks, heavy industry electricity consumption has shown a recovery growth. According to data released by the CEC, the nationwide electricity consumption during the first five months of this year was significantly higher than the growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year. In the second half of the year, the construction of affordable housing will generate a large amount of investment demand, which will lead to an increase in the output of high-energy-consuming industries. It is expected that the growth in electricity demand will remain at a high level.
In recent years, the slowdown in the growth rate of power generation installations and the conspicuous contradictions in the regional structure are the most important reasons for this round of power shortages. The decrease in hydropower generation due to the decrease in the enthusiasm for power generation by thermal power plants and the subsequent reduction in hydropower generation due to delays in the flood season have also exacerbated the severity of the electricity shortage in the second quarter. Since the power supply and power grid construction period is generally 2-3 years, it is difficult to release sufficient power supply capacity in the short and medium term. It is expected that the power shortage will continue to exist for a long time.
The emergence of power shortages in the off-season and the increase in the power supply gap for some time in the future will provide opportunities for the next phase of the power system reform, and the pace of future reforms is expected to accelerate. We believe that whether it is from the perspective of short-term electricity mitigation, or from the perspective of long-term reversal of the downward trend in the number of new thermal power generators, it is expected that coal-fired linkage will be normalized in the future. In the situation where the growth of installed capacity is slowing down and cross-regional power transmission capacity is limited, adjustment of electricity prices is an important means to alleviate the power shortage in the supply side management approach.
As the adjustment of electricity prices in the first half of the year is not yet in place, it is expected that after the peak of inflation in the second half of the year, the country is expected to start a new round of large-scale price adjustments. In addition, due to the rise in international coal prices, the delay in the southern flood season, and the tightening of domestic coal supply, domestic coal prices have risen sharply since the second quarter and have reached a high level in 2008. Combined with the slowdown in the growth of domestic demand and the sharp increase in imported coal, the current coal price is already close to the top region, and the probability of coal prices soaring in the second half is relatively small.
Based on the above analysis, Datong Securities released a report that: At present, the power industry is in a new starting point for the business cycle. After the inflation situation has eased in the second half of the year, the on-grid tariff is expected to increase again. At the same time, the current power industry is at the bottom of the historical valuation area, compared with other The industry also has advantages; in addition, the probability of coal prices continuing to soar in the second half of the year is already very small. Maintain the power industry's "look" rating.
For individual stocks, taking into account expected second-half tariff adjustments, Datong Securities proposed to first focus on thermal power companies with high sensitivity to electricity prices, followed by hydropower companies with cost advantages. Combined with the current valuation level, the investment portfolio given in the report is Huaneng International (5.28, -0.03, -0.56%), Tongbao Energy (7.16, 0.16, 2.29%), Inner Mongolia Huadian (8.52, 0.03, 0.35%), Guodian Electricity (2.93, 0.00, 0.00%), Yangtze Power (7.18, -0.02, -0.28%), and Wuyuan Power (19.93, -0.12, -0.60%).
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